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Predicting Traveler Behavior in Future Mobility Scenarios

We developed a context-dependent choice experiment to explore how people’s intentions and behaviors shift when external conditions change. Each respondent was presented with multiple future scenarios, and their responses to various psychological constructs were measured repeatedly. This approach allows us to identify how changes in the external context causally influence their decisions.

To make the scenarios more tangible, we collaborated with Etopia to create visualizations that helped respondents better grasp each scenario. The experiment was distributed online, and we gathered data from approximately 1,000 respondents. The responses are being analyzed using advanced econometric techniques, including multilevel structural equation modeling and hybrid choice modeling.

We plan to publish two scientific publications based on the findings. The first paper will examine how the social and policy environment affects the general intention to adopt innovations such as automated shuttles and relinquishing car ownership, with a special focus on the mechanisms driving these effects. The second paper will investigate how actual mode choices are influenced by the attributes of these transportation modes and the external context. Both drafts are nearing completion and will be submitted to journals in the coming months.

Contact: fanchao.liao{at}ru.nl

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